The Impact of Presidential Approval on Voter Choice in Presidential Primaries.

*Abstract: In their article, "The Conditional Nature of Presidential Responsiveness to Public Opinion," Canes-Wrone, Brandice, and Shotts (2004) argue that when the next election is soon, the president tend to alter policy decisions in response to public opinion in order to increase presidential approval ratings. It implies that presidential approval ratings may have an impact on elections. The implication has made me raise the following questions: If presidential approval may have an impact on voter choice, how it works? In other words, which voters are likely to consider it and why? In this paper, I will try to answer the questions by examining the relationship between presidential approval and vote choice in presidential primaries. Specifically, I will examine the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination campaigns to see how presidential approval can affect the voting behavior of the opposition party supporters. I expect that presidential approval can be more influential to the opposition party supporters who are dissatisfied with the incumbent candidate than the others. They will be more likely to support "electable" candidates, who seem to have more chance to defeat the incumbent candidate in November, since defeating the incumbent candidate in November is the most important in making their vote decisions.* Hypothesis: The more the opposition party supporters are dissatisfied with the incumbent candidate on the other side, the more they are likely to support "electable" candidates of their party.* Data: National Election Pool Democratic Presidential Preference Primary Exit Polls, 2004, made available by ICPSR (Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research). ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]