Has the Youth Labor Market in Japan Changed? An Event History Analysis Approach.

This paper examines whether the Japanese youth labor market has become more unstable, particularly since the 1990s. To address this problem, I suggest that we consider the transition rate of job exit to be the benchmark of instability in the labor market and focus on workers’ career histories until they reach the age of 34 years. This paper presents six hypotheses that explain the instability of the youth labor market as follows: the total increase in the job-exit transition rate, the higher risk of job exit for provisional workers, the increase in the number of provisional workers, the increasing transition rate for provisional workers and stable regular workers, the impact of firm size, and the impact of the collapse of the bubble economy. I present the summary statistics of job exit rates and the results of the Cox partial likelihood estimation models. A conspicuous phenomenon of the 1990s entailed an increasing number of provisional workers who ran a higher risk of job exits compared to regular workers. However, the job exit transition rates are generally stable. Moreover, the transition rates for regular female workers have decreased since the 1980s due to the increasing realization of gender equality in society. Although partial likelihood estimation states that firm size and the type of officer concerned (public/private) had significant effects on the transition rates, their effect did not intensify after the collapse of the bubble economy. In sum, the evidence that the Japanese youth labor market changed in the 1990s is limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]