Year of the Woman, Decade of the Man: Trajectories of growth in women’s state legislative representation

The expansion of women’s political representation ranks among the most significant trends in American politics of the last 100 years. In this paper, we develop two longitudinal theories to explain patterns of growth and change in women’s state legislative representation over time. Gender salience suggests that years in which women’s absence from politics is problematized (e.g., 1992—the Year of the Woman) will demonstrate higher levels of growth. Political climate suggests that periods in which domestic issues are stressed (e.g., the 1990s) will produce higher levels of growth than periods in which international issues are stressed (e.g., post 9/11). Combinations of these two theories create four possible trajectories of growth in women’s representation that may be observed over time. We use latent growth curve models to assess the four theoretical trajectories, using data on women’s state legislative representation from 1982 to 2006. We find that while women achieved fleeting success in the Year of the Woman, further gains were limited in the remainder of the 1990s and average growth stalled completely after 2001. Our results show futher that gender salience and, to a lesser extent political, climate matter to growth and change in women’s political power over time. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]