Success Contagion and Presidential Election Campaigns in Latin America.

Existing theories of change in campaign strategies predict cross-national convergence in terms of candidates' linkages to voters and the degree of policy focus and cleavage priming in their appeals. However, the prevailing national patterns of electioneering in Chile, Brazil, and Peru have actually diverged from one another since their transitions from authoritarian rule. This paper develops a theory of success contagion that can explain the evolution of presidential campaign strategy in these countries as well as other third-wave democracies. I argue that the first politician to combine a victorious campaign with a successful term as president establishes a model of electioneering that candidates across the ideological spectrum are likely to adopt in the future. Such contagion can occur through imitation as well as the consolidation of norms among campaign professionals. Strategic convergence is less probable in cases of repeatedly poor governing performance, such as Peru. Instead, candidates are likely to choose strategies through an inward-oriented process of reacting against previous errors. This paper draws upon content analysis of television advertising, interviews with campaign staff, and case studies of specific elections in Chile, Brazil, and Peru. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]