The Politics of Dissent and Repression: How Regime Structures Shape Protest/Violence Cycles.

Existing discussions of the dissent/repression nexus are largely informed by rational choice arguments about reciprocal interactions. We argue that political regimes channel the interaction between dissidents and the state, creating distinctive interactions between dissidents and the state. Drawing on event data from the World Handbook of Political Indicators IV project to compare dissent and repression dynamics in a consolidated democracy (the U.S.), an emerging democracy (Turkey), an inclusionaryauthoritarian regime (Jordan), an exclusionary authoritarian regime (Egypt) and a hybrid state (Israel/Palestine), we find that the largestdifferences are the intensity of violence and the length of protest/violence cycles. Consolidated democracy creates lower levels ofcivil violence and shorter reciprocal cycles of dissent and repression. A hybrid state that combines democracy in one region and militaryoccupation in another creates the most intense violence and the longest duration protest/violence cycles. Nonviolent protest in all systems contributes to repressive state violence, especially in an authoritariancontext. We also look at the effects of state relaxations on civil action, finding that relaxations typically occur after a de-escalation of violence. Violence cycles appear to be rooted in fundamental conflictsover national identity and the definition of the state while disputes over incremental reforms are more likely to generate episodic andnon-reciprocated dissent and repression. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]