Understanding State Failure: The Lifecycle and Foreign Policy Implications of State Degradation.

The United States National Security Strategy states that failing states have emerged as an important threat to the security of the United States. Yet international theory related to failing states is still being developed and policy recommendations for intervention remain elusive and crisis-specific. This paper introduces a historical dataset, analyses and policy implications of State Failure for autocratic states for a 43-year period ranging from 1960-2003. Analyses and propositions using this original dataset are presented to form the underlying basis of a general theory of State Failure. Focusing on indicatorsâ€"not predictorsâ€"of state failure, this paper addresses issues critical to foreign policy related to intervention in autocratic failing or failed states. Key issues that are addressed include: what are the indicators of state failure?; what percent of states are in strong, weak, failing or collapsed stages compared to 10, 20 years ago?; what percent of states degrade from weak to failing?; what is the point of “no return” for a failing state?; and what are the foreign policy implications of this trend for future decades? ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]