Upgrading the Role of ICT in Conflict Early Warning/Response.

The purpose of this paper is to explain how information communication technology, or ICT, can play an effective and tactical role in bridging conflict early warning with early response. The first section of this paper reviews the raison d'être of conventional early warning systems, their underlying methodologies and use of ICTs. The second section traces the trend towards more decentralized approaches to disaster management, suggesting that conflict early warning initiatives take heed of the lessons learned and current applications of ICTs in disasters. The third section identifies the tactics and ICTs used by activist citizens and nonviolent movements to highlight the potential of non-conventional approaches to warning and response. The conclusion ties together the ICT threads from the three sections. In keeping with the theme of the 49th International Studies Association (ISA) Convention of 2008, "Bridging Multiple Divides," this paper seeks to link the lessons learned in conflict early warning, disaster response and nonviolent action to improve on current responses to violent conflict. The three sections that follow thus assess the effectiveness of conventional approaches to conflict early warning; contrast these approaches with those practiced in disaster response; and draw on survival techniques and civilian resistance studies to outline the potential added value that a tactical approach offers vis-à-vis bridging conflict early warning with response. These three sections are themselves framed into three parts: analysis of the systems, critique of the methodologies and review of the ICTs. Since the purpose of this research is first and foremost to assess the role of information communication technologies in early warning, those parts receive priority—albeit within the contexts of the associated systems and their respective methodologies. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]