Uncertain Waters: The Causes of the East China Sea disputes, and the Way Forward for Sino-Japanese relations.

This paper will posit the argument that the aggravation of the East China Sea disputes since the 1990s between Japan and China are the product of a number of factors specific to both states. Using neo-liberal institutionalism as a theoretical guide in terms of ways out of this impasse, this thesis will contend that the heightened tensions over energy resources and maritime territory since the mid-1990s have developed as a result of a combination of state specific factors that have hindered Sino-Japanese attempts to find binding agreements on joint-developments and designated Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) in the East China Sea.Four major contributing factors to the East China Sea disputes are identified in this thesis. In the first place, there is the issue of the security structure in North-east Asia, a structure that remains closely related to one suited to a Cold War environment, where Beijing remains cautious of any real or imagined US-Japanese attempts to contain China; a fact that inhibits China's ability to engage in regional security activities. China thus views the security implications of the East China Sea disputes through both a traditional and non-traditional lens where new issues such as maritime piracy and terrorism provide both states with opportunities and challenges for co-operation. Secondly, there is the influence of domestic politics and nationalism in Japan and China on how the respective governments and populations perceive, address and formulate their maritime security policy . Yinan He highlights the importance of this second factor by claiming that the reason why nationalism has a strong role in this evolving era of Sino-Japanese relations is that 'the historically derived mutual antipathy and mistrust can worsen the security concerns generated by the high ambiguity in their current power balance and cause serious mutual threat perception' . A third issue relates to differing Japanese and Chinese interpretations of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) along with the importance of the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs); factors closely linked to security concerns in the East China Sea. Lastly, another contributing factor is the clear lack of an adequate security management regime in the North-East Asia region . By choosing neo-liberal institutionalism as a theoretical guide and a way forward, this paper will also look at the part played by, distrust, the fear of being cheated on in negotiations, and uncertainties over Japan and China's post-Cold War roles, in contributing to the aggravation of the East China Sea disputes since the 1990s. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]