The Vanguard's Dilemma: Examining the Vanguard Theory of Insurgency.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a better conceptualization of insurgent strategies. Specifically, I shall examine Che Guevara's "Foco" theory of insurgency, as it is one of the most theoretically popular and most pervasive strategies of insurgency currently practiced throughout the world. After briefly examining the origins, objectives and theoretical strengths of the Foco (also known as the Vanguard Theory) theory, I will argue that Guevara's theory suffers from an internal tension that I term the "Vanguard's Dilemma." Simply put, the Vanguard's dilemma is a decision insurgents must make between the desire to maintain a secure base away from the reach of government control (security) versus the need to be in constant contact with the population in order to increase its popularity (publicity). The significance of this dilemma between the desire for security and the need for publicity creates a tension within the Vanguard Theory that can be fatal for insurgents if properly exploited by counter-insurgent operations. This paper will examine in detail this dilemma and show how it can be exploited. Given that several insurgent groups within Iraq currently adhere to the Vanguard Theory of insurgency, a proper understanding of insurgent strategy is an essential first step in the long road towards confronting and winning asymmetrical conflicts. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]