War, Terror, And Strategic Foresight: Social Capital As An Element Of National Power.

Abstract: Since 1989, intelligence analysts and policy-makers have had the opportunity to reevaluate potential strategic threats to the security of the United States. In the past, analysts have been able to develop more accurate measures of the power projection capabilities of potential competitors by relying on more refined analytical tools, such as the use of purchasing power parity figures rather than market exchange rates to determine actual military spending. More recently, some analysts have begun to focus less on static data regarding personnel and equipment and more on state performance, i.e. the ability of states to convert these resources into the ability to project power. However, despite the large number of studies linking social capital theory to organizational behavior, there is very little discussion of social capital as a factor in facilitating this conversion process. Social capital is related to levels of trust and the benefits that arise from belonging to social networks. Like financial and human capital, it is a resource that increases productivity and performance within organizations. This paper will argue that social capital is an important indicator of military capabilities to the degree that it influences the ability of state and non-state actors to mobilize resources and engage in the conversion process. Integrating a social capital assessment into an analysis of potential threats can help analysts and policy-makers avoid overestimating or underestimating the capabilities of competitors and to predict the type of opposition US forces are likely to face in a given conflict. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]