Frontloading Primaries and Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Election.

The capricious political environment surrounding the 2008 presidential election - for example the rarity of having an open seat election, the prospect of having the first woman or African American president, and the large number of states holding their primaries earlier - created an exciting primary season. In evaluating the primary season, one question that arises is whether these unusual circumstances translated into higher voter turnout. This paper will analyze the impact frontloading primaries had on voter turnout. There are several potential consequences - both positive and negative - from states holding their primaries earlier in the year. This paper explores these potential consequences, and focuses specifically on whether states holding their primaries earlier had higher voter turnout than states holding their primaries later. To determine whether this is the case, the percentage of voters who turned out in each state's primary in 2008 will be compared with the percentage of voters who turned out in the state during the 2000 primaries. If turnout is higher in states holding earlier contests, then other states may have motivation to hold their primaries earlier. The 2000 and 2008 primaries are more comparable than the 2008 and 2004 primaries, mainly because George W. Bush was running for reelection in 2004 resulting in many states not holding Republican contests. Aside from discussing voter turnout, this paper will also examine other issues surrounding states holding their primaries earlier in the year. For example, disagreements between states and national party organizations about when primaries can be held will also be explored. Ultimately, this paper will reveal some of the implications of states holding their primaries earlier, and also make predictions about how primaries will be conducted in the future. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]