The Purpose and Pitfalls of Forecasting: Implications of Strategic Culture Research for Europe's Evolution as a Military Power.

The paper approaches the issue of forecasting in international affairs theoretically and empirically. In the theoretical section, the paper discussed the epistemological and normative problems arising when attempting to forecast international events, but concludes that forecasting is both scientifically rewarding as well as normatively desirable. It then proceeds to argue that constructivist theories of strategic culture and norms regarding the use of force can act in conjunction with insights about capabilities and future security challenges as a mid-range theory to account for the evolution of the EU as a security actor. This proposition is elaborated empirically by drawing on the empirical findings of comparative strategic culture research to generate some forecasts concerning the goals the EU is likely to pursue and the capabilities it is likely to acquire. It does so by highlighting opportunities for foresighted policy as well as dangers inherent in ignoring some of limitations in terms of future capabilities and common will. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]