Deposing Despots: Intra-country Analyses of the Dictator Durability Thesis.

Abstract:I explore the shelf life of different types of dictatorships. Using the same typology of dictators as Barbara Geddes (i.e. personalist, one-party , and military), the paper analyzes the durability of these different regimes and leaders and what factors explain why and when they fall apart. To date the only previous study addressing this topic is a larger N cross-sectional study by Erica Frantz (2007), which in contrast to Geddes, looks at leadership durability, not regime durability. Frantz emphasizes the importance of the size of the cadre of elites surrounding the dictator (with smaller groups of elites leading to greater longevity), and concludes in contrast to Geddes, that the survival rate of dictators is longest in personalist dictatorships; shortest in military dictatorships; and one-party dictatorships fall somewhere between the former two, whereas Geddes claims that one-party regimes are more durable than personalist regimes. I evaluate both Geddes and Frantz's thesis within 26 authoritarian countries over time, and I also look at examples of personalist, military and one-party regimes in Africa, Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe. In doing so I provide depth to Frantz's thesis, and highlight causal mechanisms that could only be revealed in a more contextual examination. The second part of the paper investigates the causal factors behind regime and leadership durability in hybrid regimes and monarchies. Thus, one of the goals of the inquest is to add to our understanding of both regime and leadership survival in authoritarian regimes, including hybrids and to uncover how the type of dictatorship matters and why. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]