Risk and Redistricting: How Parties' Attitudes Towards Risk Affect Congressional District Competitiveness.

When parties redraw their state's congressional districts, they must decide to either protect their incumbents or maximize their seats. Heretofore, there has been little work focused directly on understanding how parties choose between these competing goals. Utilizing prospect theory, I argue that parties' perceptions affect their willingness to accept risk; combined with the particular context they find themselves in, this leads to predictable changes in the competitiveness of the state's congressional districts. I use data collected from the last three redistricting cycles and find support for the important role perception plays in determining how congressional districts are drawn. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]