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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS BY MODIFIED LEAST-SQUARES TECHNIQUES.
- Source :
-
Journal of the American Statistical Association . Mar1966, Vol. 61 Issue 313, p152-165. 14p. - Publication Year :
- 1966
-
Abstract
- This paper presents a procedure for estimating the components in an economic time series assuming a constant seasonal component and a trend which may be estimated locally by a polynomial. The procedure is to estimate the trend and seasonal components for each consecutive two-year time span of quarterly data using conventional least-square techniques. Thus, for each quarter in the series, except the first seven and last seven, there are eight estimates for each of these components. A weighted average of these estimates is obtained using weights such that the variance of the average is a minimum. This procedure is used to adjust male unemployment in the United States for seasonal variation, and the results compare favorably with the official adjustment of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 01621459
- Volume :
- 61
- Issue :
- 313
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 4609382
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1966.10502015