Seismicity and Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Southeastern Anatolia Region.

In this study, calculation of the spatial distribution of seismicity parameters and seismic hazard is implemented for the Southeastern Anatolia Region of Turkey. For this purpose, the earthquakes of magnitude of M≥4 occurred in the time period between 1964-2008 were used in the Southeastern Anatolia Region of Turkey. For the estimation of seismicity parameters and its mapping, the study area is divided into 253 circular subregion. For each area, the parameters a and b in the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation were calculated by the least squares and the newly developed Kaltek method. The results obtained from the both methods were compared with each other. However, the b-value map prepared with the Kaltek method presented a better consistency with the regional tectonics. In the region, minimum, maximum and average b-value were calculated to be equal to bmin=0.8, bmax=l.26 and bavr=1, respectively. Finally, the return period and occurrence probability of M≥6,5 earthquake in the 100-year period were calculated using the Poisson distribution. An occurrence probability of 70-75% and a return period of less than 50 years were found for the Erzincan-Erzurum- Muş-Elaziğ area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]