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Flood frequency analysis using historical data: accounting for random and systematic errors.

Authors :
Neppel, Luc
Renard, Benjamin
Lang, Michel
Ayral, Pierre-Alain
Coeur, Denis
Gaume, Eric
Jacob, Nicolas
Payrastre, Olivier
Pobanz, Karine
Vinet, Freddy
Source :
Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques. Mar2010, Vol. 55 Issue 2, p192-208. 17p. 2 Charts, 8 Graphs, 1 Map.
Publication Year :
2010

Abstract

Flood frequency analysis based on a set of systematic data and a set of historical floods is applied to several Mediterranean catchments. After identification and collection of data on historical floods, several hydraulic models were constructed to account for geomorphological changes. Recent and historical rating curves were constructed and applied to reconstruct flood discharge series, together with their uncertainty. This uncertainty stems from two types of error: (a) random errors related to the water-level readings; and (b) systematic errors related to over- or under-estimation of the rating curve. A Bayesian frequency analysis is performed to take both sources of uncertainty into account. It is shown that the uncertainty affecting discharges should be carefully evaluated and taken into account in the flood frequency analysis, as it can increase the quantiles confidence interval. The quantiles are found to be consistent with those obtained with empirical methods, for two out of four of the catchments. Citation Neppel, L., Renard, B., Lang, M., Ayral, P.-A., Coeur, D., Gaume, E., Jacob, N., Payrastre, O., Pobanz, K. & Vinet, F. (2010) Flood frequency analysis using historical data: accounting for random and systematic errors. Hydrol. Sci. J.55(2), 192-208. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
02626667
Volume :
55
Issue :
2
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
55309368
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660903546092