ESCENARIOS DE LA QUINTA REPÚBLICA: Análisis prospectivo de la política social y económica integrada del actual gob ierno venezolano.

The aim of this paper is to analyze two senarios of integrated economic and social policies, designed in Venezuela during Hugo Chavez Frias's first presidential period (2000-2006). It begins with a series of theoretical considerations as to the prospectic method and the scenario technique employed in the design of such studies, and then describes, defines and analyzes the variables of the study using content analysis of official governmental documents. Finally the scenarios are constructed with the help of XIMPACT computer software, applying a set of matrix techniques which feed the program. The analysis of two selected scenarios projects the results of governmental actions which combines neoliberal polices, such as inflation controls though macroeconomic variables and interventionist policies where the State plays a prominent role by expanding public spending. The conclusion includes reflections which encourage constructive debate and also suggest propossed, ideal scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]