Back to Search
Start Over
Transformation Patterns of the Worldwide Energy System -- Scenarios for the Century with the POLES Model.
- Source :
-
Energy Journal . 2010 Special Issue, Vol. 31, p49-82. 34p. - Publication Year :
- 2010
-
Abstract
- This paper presents a long-term assessment of the worldwide energy system in scenarios ranging from a baseline to a very low greenhouse gas stabilization, using the energy model POLES. Despite improved energy efficiency, the baseline scenario would lead to a doubling in energy consumption by 2050 increasing further thereafter. CO2 emissions would continue rising, driven by the coal consumed in the power production which roughly follows the GDP growth; the scarcity of oil resources would trigger the development of alternative vehicles. Conversely, a 400 ppm CO2 eq stabilization case would lead to drastic changes in supply (renewables - biomass), transformation (carbon capture and storage) and demand (low energy technologies). It transpires that the contribution to the reduction effort of low stabilization compared to a baseline scenario would be similar for final consumption (36% efficiency and 10% fuel mix) and for the power sector (25% renewables, 25% CCS, 4% nuclear). In addition this low emission scenario would alleviate the tensions on fossil energy markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- *POWER resources
*GREENHOUSE gas mitigation
*GREENHOUSE gases
*BIOMASS
*FOSSIL fuels
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 01956574
- Volume :
- 31
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Energy Journal
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 59360740
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol31-nosi-3