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External Validation of an Index to Predict Up to 9-Year Mortality of Community-Dwelling Adults Aged 65 and Older.
- Source :
-
Journal of the American Geriatrics Society . Aug2011, Vol. 59 Issue 8, p1444-1451. 8p. 4 Charts, 2 Graphs. - Publication Year :
- 2011
-
Abstract
- OBJECTIVES: To further validate an index predicting mortality in community-dwelling older adults. DESIGN: A comparison of the performance of the index in predicting mortality among new respondents to the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS, 2001-2004) with that of respondents from the original development and validation cohorts (1997-2000) and a test of its performance over extended follow-up (up to 9 years) using the original cohorts. Follow-up mortality data were available through 2006. SETTING: NHIS. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-two thousand fifty-seven new respondents to the NHIS (2001-2004) and 24,139 respondents from the original development and validation cohorts (1997-2000). MEASUREMENTS: A risk score was calculated for each respondent based on the presence or absence of 11 factors (function, illnesses, behaviors, demographics) that make up the index. Using the Kaplan-Meier method, 5-year mortality estimates were computed for the new and original cohort respondents and 9-year mortality estimates for the original cohorts. RESULTS: New respondents were similar to original cohort respondents but were slightly more likely to be aged 85 and older, report diabetes mellitus, and have a body mass index of 25.0 kg/m2 or greater. The model performed as well in the new cohort as it had in the original cohort. New respondents with risk scores of 0 to 1 had a 2% risk of 5-year mortality, whereas respondents who scored 18 or higher had a 69% risk of 5-year mortality (range 3-71% risk of 5-year mortality in the development cohort). The index also demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination in predicting 9-year mortality (range 7% risk for scores of 0-1 to 92% risk for scores of ≥18, original validation cohort extended). CONCLUSION: These results further justify use of this index to estimate life expectancy in clinical decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- *AGE distribution
*ANALYSIS of variance
*CHRONIC diseases
*CONFIDENCE intervals
*DEMOGRAPHY
*DIABETES
*EXPERIMENTAL design
*HEALTH status indicators
*LIFE expectancy
*LIFE skills
*RESEARCH methodology
*RESEARCH funding
*RISK assessment
*SURVEYS
*SURVIVAL analysis (Biometry)
*BODY mass index
*INDEPENDENT living
*PROPORTIONAL hazards models
*RESEARCH methodology evaluation
*DATA analysis software
*OLD age
MORTALITY risk factors
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00028614
- Volume :
- 59
- Issue :
- 8
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 65005148
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2011.03523.x