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Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N.
- Source :
-
Science . 1/6/2012, Vol. 335 Issue 6064, p76-79. 4p. - Publication Year :
- 2012
-
Abstract
- Attempts to predict changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have yielded little success to date. Here, we demonstrate predictability for monthly mean AMOC strength at 26.5°N for up to 4 years in advance. This AMOC predictive skill arises predominantly from the basin-wide upper-mid-ocean geostrophic transport, which in turn can be predicted because we have skill in predicting the upper-ocean zonal density difference. Ensemble forecasts initialized between January 2008 and January 2011 indicate a stable AMOC at 26.5°N unfit at least 2014, despite a brief wind-induced weakening in 2010. Because AMOC influences many aspects of climate, our results establish AMOC as an important potential carrier of climate predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00368075
- Volume :
- 335
- Issue :
- 6064
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Science
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 70501918
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1210299