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Effects of Baseline Conditions on the Simulated Hydrologic Response to Projected Climate Change.
- Source :
-
Earth Interactions . 2011, Vol. 15 Issue 27, p1-23. 23p. - Publication Year :
- 2011
-
Abstract
- Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 10873562
- Volume :
- 15
- Issue :
- 27
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Earth Interactions
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 75239669
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1175/2011EI378.1