Tracking millennial-scale climate change by analysis of the modern summer precipitation in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon

Abstract: The Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds interact in the mid-latitude regions of East Asia, so that climate change there is influenced by the combined effect of the two climate systems. The Holocene millennial-scale Asian summer monsoon change shows the out-of-phase relationship with the moisture evolution in arid Central Asia. Although much research has been devoted to the long-term climate change, little work has been done on the mechanism. Summer precipitation, in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon, is strongly affected by the monsoon and the westerly winds. The purpose of this paper is to examine the mechanism of the millennial-scale out-of-phase relationship by modern summer precipitation analysis in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon (95–110°E, 35–45°N). First, the method of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was carried out to the 1960–2008 summer rainfall data from 64 stations in that region; then the water vapor transportation and geopotential height field data were studied, in order to explain and understand the factors that influence the summer precipitation; lastly, the East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (EASMI), South Asian Summer Monsoon Index (SASMI), Summer Westerly Winds Index (SWI) were compared with the EOF time series. The results indicate the complicated interannual-scale interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds, which can result in the modern out-of-phase relationship in the study area. This study demonstrates that the interaction between the two climate systems can be considered as a factor for the millennial-scale out-of-phase relationship. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]