Examining the Impact of the President's Party on Gubernatorial Elections.

Research on the causes of midterm decline in US elections is an important area of study in political science. Though there has been a lot of work on midterm decline at the national level, there has not been a lot of research about how theories of midterm decline can be applied to the US federal system. This paper focuses on establishing a relationship between the president's party and gubernatorial elections using longitudinal hierarchical linear modeling. I find that the evaluations of the president can impact elections, and that there is an important effect of presidential punishment. These results indicate the need for more research about how theories of midterm decline specifically impact state level voting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]