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Deriving a Forecast Model for European Election Turnout.
- Source :
-
Political Research Quarterly . Dec2012, Vol. 65 Issue 4, p855-867. 13p. - Publication Year :
- 2012
-
Abstract
- Turnout is a key indicator in European Parliament elections in the absence of a direct executive outcome. Forecasting turnout is an important exercise in requiring the identification of a parsimonious model with good lead time from the array of structural, demographic, and attitudinal variables employed in rich explanatory models of turnout, and simultaneously minimizing prediction error. Building on a series of regression models using aggregate data, this article explores the applicability of such an approach to turnout in the EU-27 countries and considers the explanatory added value that deriving such a forecast model can also provide. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
- Subjects :
- *VOTER turnout
*VOTING research
*VOTING abstention
*ELECTIONS
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 10659129
- Volume :
- 65
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Political Research Quarterly
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 83227050
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912911421016