The diff usion of violence in the North Caucasus of Russia, 1999-2010.

Despite an increase in attention to 'geography' in civil war research, local dynamics in violence remain poorly understood. To address this gap, we analyze disaggregated violent event data for the North Caucasus of Russia from the start of the second Chechen war, in August 1999, to July 2010. We employ a diff usion perspective to examine the spread of the confl ict from its Chechen nucleus and we identify the tit-for-tat nature of the confl ict between the rebels and the military/police forces as especially signifi cant in understanding the confl ict's dynamics and spread to neighboring republics. A space-time analysis shows that violence is concentrated at short temporal intervals and geographic distances. As the insurgents in the violence have changed from dominantly nationalist to Islamist, the geography of the war has become more diff use across the Muslim republics of the region, rendering the Russian counterinsurgency eff orts more challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]