Non-stationarity in daily precipitation series: implications for GCMdown-scaling using atmospheric circulation indices

The paper addresses issues relating to the design and calibration ofprecipitation models for down-scaling General Circulation Model (GCM) output. First, the significance of non-stationary daily circulation-pattern-precipitation relationships will be described for two UK sites, each with records beginning in 1881. Second, the cause(s) of the observed non-stationarity will be investigated using lengthy air flow, synoptic, temperature, and standardized teleconnection indices. Third, the prospects for incorporating these factors within down-scalingmethods will be discussed with reference to several alternative techniques. Finally, a multivariate approach incorporating teleconnectionand airflow indices within precipitation models is advocated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]