Opportunism and Election Timing by Canadian Provincial and Federal Governments.

We investigate election timing by Canadian provincial and federal governments from 1976 to 2008. Using monthly data, our provincial regressions indicate that lower unemployment and the prospect of increasing unemployment spur election calls. Our federal regressions also suggest that lower unemployment triggers elections and the effect is stronger at the federal level than at the provincial level. We present evidence that US monthly unemployment rates are lower before Canadian variable-date federal elections but are not lower before US fixed-date elections. This finding further indicates that Canadian politicians have used our variable-date election system to exploit favourable conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]