A Research-based Model for the Development of Policy on Baseline Assessment.

The purpose of this article is to examine whether it is possible to combine two previously separate objectives of baseline assessment in mathematics: the use of baseline assessment for formative reasons and for value-added functions. A review of research on early mathematics development helps to identify the importance of formative purposes of early assessment in mathematics. The development of policy on baseline assessment in mathematics is put within the broader debate about value-added assessment. Findings of an empirical investigation into Cypriot pupils' skills and knowledge in mathematics upon entry to primary school and at the end of year 2 are presented. Significant differences among the skills and knowledge of pupils entering primary school were identified. Cluster analysis revealed five relatively homogeneous groups of pupils entering primary school according to their different knowledge and skills in mathematics. The predictive validity of baseline assessment for pupils' attainment at the end of year 2 was satisfactory. Pupil background factors were significantly related to pupils' attainment on the baseline assessment and to their attainment at the end of year 2. However, the baseline score was the most important factor in relation to pupils' progress. Pupils with special needs (either for further support or for extended activities) made less progress than pupils who were typical for their age. Differences between schools' final results were reduced substantially when account was taken of their pupil intakes, but significant differences between schools remained. It is argued that the research findings reveal the importance of developing a model of baseline assessment in mathematics attempting to achieve two purposes: identifying what pupils entering the primary school know and what they do not know in order to trigger differentiated intervention; and establishing a basis for measuring future progress in mathematics through a value-added analysis. Implications for using such a model to raise achievement in mathematics are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]