Redistribution of prehistoric Tarim people in response to climate change.

Abstract: The role of climate change on civilization evolution, varying from a driving force, to a supporting role or just background noise, is an often-debated issue. This paper presents the occupation history of prehistoric civilization in the hyperarid Tarim Basin as a case study to evaluate the influences of environmental change. The prehistorical relics in the Tarim Basin are centered at two periods: prior to 3000 BP and after 2700 BP, showing an apparent centurial gap in occupation. The gap is bridged by the relics from the Kunlun highland, 3000–2600 BP. Previous palaeoclimatic reconstructions show an anti-phased moisture changes between the southern Tarim and the Kunlun highland during the past 5000 years. Placing the timing of relics in the climatic context, the prehistoric relics only occur during relatively wet periods, both on the Kunlun highlands and in the southern basin. The pattern indicates that moisture change is an important explanation for relic distributions in southern Tarim. During the succession of relics from both the basin and the highland, cultural complexities increased gradually from 3800 BP to the historical period, without any significant absences or collapses. This implies that ancient cultures can develop, although the people migrated between the highland and the basin. The results show that in this case environmental pressures have little influence on civilization evolution, even in such a fragile habitat and during prehistoric periods. Caution is required in assessing the influences of environmental change on civilizations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]