Back to Search
Start Over
Prediction of Severe, Persistent Activity-of-Daily-Living Disability in Older Adults.
- Source :
-
American Journal of Epidemiology . Oct2013, Vol. 178 Issue 7, p1085-1093. 9p. - Publication Year :
- 2013
-
Abstract
- In a prospective cohort of nondisabled adults aged 65 years or more in the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (1981–1987 and 1985–1992), we used a competing risk approach to predict the 5-year risk of severe, persistent activities-of-daily-living (ADLs) disability, defined as dependence in ≥3 ADLs for 2 consecutive annual interviews or for 1 interview followed by death in the subsequent year. During 5 years, 6.8% developed severe, persistent ADL dependence, and 14.6% died without severe, persistent ADL dependence in the derivation cohort (n = 8,301); the corresponding percentages were 6.8% and 15.8% in the validation cohort (n = 4,177). A model based on age, current employment, visual impairment, self-rated health, diabetes mellitus, history of stroke or brain hemorrhage, cognitive function, and self-reported physical function showed good calibration. Discrimination, assessed by C statistics, for <70, 70–74, 75–79, and ≥80 years, was 0.75, 0.74, 0.65, and 0.66 in the derivation cohort and 0.70, 0.72, 0.70, and 0.65 in the validation cohort, respectively. In conclusion, a simple risk score based on routinely available clinical information can predict severe, persistent disability in 5 years. Future studies should examine whether physical performance measures can further improve prediction in the oldest old. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
- Subjects :
- *ACTIVITIES of daily living
*RISK assessment
*AGE distribution
*OLDER people with disabilities
*CONFIDENCE intervals
*DISCRIMINANT analysis
*GOODNESS-of-fit tests
*HEALTH status indicators
*LIFE skills
*LONGITUDINAL method
*RESEARCH funding
*SELF-evaluation
*DEATH certificates
*THEORY
*DISABILITIES
*SECONDARY analysis
*PREDICTIVE validity
*PROPORTIONAL hazards models
*DESCRIPTIVE statistics
MORTALITY risk factors
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00029262
- Volume :
- 178
- Issue :
- 7
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- American Journal of Epidemiology
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 90503999
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwt097