Polarization and the Decline of Economic Voting in American National Elections.

The idea that voters blame or credit the President for the state of the economy when making electoral decisions is well-established. But recent developments in American party politics-in particular, growing party polarization-suggest that the strength and importance of economic voting should vary across political contexts. In this paper, we draw from theories of economic voting, cognitive biases in information processing, and party polarization, to develop a simple model of the relationship between polarization and economic voting. We expect that both objective and subjective economic information should become less important to how voters act as parties polarization, as polarization leads voters to stronger reliance on simple party identity when making electoral decisions. Empirical analysis of individual-level vote choices support our theoretical claims, proving evidence that the economy matters less to the vote when parties are highly polarized than when they are not. We discuss the implications of these results for understanding party polarization and election outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]