UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE INCARCERATION OF PRETRIAL DEFENDANTS.

Empirical evidence shows that unemployment influences levels of incarceration. Theory attributes this relationship to the state's attempt to control labor surpluses. Studies testing the Rusche and Kirchheimer (1939) thesis yield questionable results, however, because they rely on convicted offender data. Using longitudinal data and a Box-Jenkins Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling method, we investigate the effect of unemployment rates on pretrial incarceration rates. We include controls for arrest rates, jail capacity, and three court processing variables. Although our preliminary bivariate analysis revealed that the aggregate unemployment rate was significantly and positively related to pretrial incarceration for misdemeanors, this correlation became nonsignificant in the ARIMA analysis. The relationship between unemployment and the incarceration rate for pretrial felony defendants was also nonsignificant. Taken in total, our results suggest that the Rusche and Kirchheimer thesis overstates the importance of unemployment in explaining levels of incarceration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]