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Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting. II: Application, Forecasts for Japan and Venezuela.
- Source :
-
Pure & Applied Geophysics . Jul2014, Vol. 171 Issue 7, p1367-1383. 17p. - Publication Year :
- 2014
-
Abstract
- In order to analyze observed seismicity in central Japan and Venezuela, we applied a new method to identify semi-periodic sequences in the occurrence times of large earthquakes, which allows for the presence of multiple periodic sequences and/or events not belonging to any sequence in the time series. We also explored a scheme for diminishing the effects of a sharp cutoff magnitude threshold in selecting the events to analyze. A main four-event sequence with probability P = 0.991 of not having occurred by chance was identified for earthquakes with M ≥ 8.0 in central Japan. Venezuela is divided, from West to East, into four regions; for each of these, the magnitude ranges and identified sequences are as follows. Region 1: M ≥ 6.0, a six-event sequence with P = 0.923, and a four-event sequence with P = 0.706. Region 2: M ≥ 5.6, a five-event sequence with P = 0.942. Region 3: M ≥ 5.6, a four-event sequence with P = 0.882. Region 4: M ≥ 6.0, a five-event sequence with P = 0.891. Forecasts are made and evaluated for all identified sequences having four or more events and probabilities ≥0.5. The last event of all these sequences was satisfactorily aftcast by previous events. Whether the identified sequences do, in fact, correspond to physical processes resulting in semi-periodic seismicity is, of course, an open question; but the forecasts, properly used, may be useful as a factor in seismic hazard estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00334553
- Volume :
- 171
- Issue :
- 7
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Pure & Applied Geophysics
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 97383838
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-013-0678-6