Predictors of short-term outcome in Chinese patients with ambulatory heart failure for heart transplantation with ejection fraction <25%.

Heart transplantation (HT) provides longer survival than that of the natural history in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). However, the optimal timing for cardiac transplantation and predictors of mortality in patients with end-stage cardiomyopathy (ESCM) has been poorly defined. The primary purpose of this study focused on the natural history of ambulatory patients with ESCM for HT assessment. Secondly, we tried to determine prognostic factors of individuals with the poorest short-term outcome and the optimal timing for HT in patients with ESCM. Finally, clinical treatment with angiotensin converting-enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), carvedilol and amiodarone in the prevention of mortality caused by ESCM, were retrospectively evaluated. The short-term outcomes of 119 referral patients with ESCM for four years were observed. The patients had New York Heart Association class III to IV dyspnea at initial assessment for HT. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 17 +/- 6% and cardiac index (CI) was 2.0 +/- 0.6l/min/m2. After optimization of medical treatment, the patients were divided into two major groups according to CI equal to or less than 2.0l/min/m2 and more than 2.0l/min/m2. HTs were accepted in 88 patients and the patients were divided into two groups: medical treatment (group 1, 56 patients) or HT (group 3, 32 patients); HT was not accepted in the other 31 patients (group 2). We studied the probability of the survival curve and prognostic variables of the groups with medical treatment in the follow-up of 12 +/- 9 months. During follow-up, 49 patients were alive without HT. The remaining 38 patients died; 27 patients were in group 1 and 11 patients were in group 2. Eight deaths in group 2 were sudden. The actuarial survival rate among the non-HT population was 73%, 68%, 63 %, and 56 % at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, respectively. The actuarial survival rate among group 1 was 70 %, 59 %, 55 %, and 52 % at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, respectively. The actuarial survival rate among group 2 was 87 %, 85 %, 77 %, and 65 % at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, respectively. A comparison, excluding patients with HT, was performed with those who had survived < 1 year and > or 1 year after assessment, and those who had died. Two parameters were independent predictors of prognosis on univariate and multivariate analysis: total pulmonary vascular resistance (TPR) > or = 14 Wood units (W) and CI < 1.65 l/min/m2 at 6 and 12 months after assessment. Treatment with amiodarone for ventricular tachycardia (VT) showed no convincing role in the prevention of sudden death in our patients. Also, treatment with ACEIs or carvedilol for heart failure was unconvincing to improve the short-term outcome in this study. Our results suggest in properly selected patients that HT should be considered within six months among patients with severe heart failure. Hemodynamic parameters associated with right cardiac function are important determinants of mortality caused by progressive heart failure. Predictors such as CI and TPR may be considered as important markers of mortality in prediction of short-term outcome in patients with ESCM, as other predictors reported in the literature.