Effect of lot variability on ultraviolet radiation inactivation kinetics of Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts.

Numerous studies have demonstrated the efficiency of ultraviolet (UV) radiation for the inactivation of oocysts of Cryptosporidium parvum. In these studies inactivation is measured as reduction in oocysts. A primary goal is to estimate the UV radiation required to achieve a high degree of inactivation. Different lots of Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts are used in these studies, and the inactivation rate may vary depending on the lot of oocysts used. The goal of this paper is to account for the error in estimating the amount of inactivation after exposure to UV radiation, and for the effect of lot variability in determining the required UV radiation. A Bayesian approach is used to simultaneously model the logistic dose-response model and the UV inactivation kinetic model. The oocysts lot variability is incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian model. Posterior distributions using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to obtain estimates and Bayesian credible interval for the required UV radiation to achieve a given inactivation level of Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts.