Rule-based modelling of conjugative plasmid transfer and incompatibility.

COSMIC-rules, an individual-based model for bacterial adaptation and evolution, has been used to study virtual transmission of plasmids within bacterial populations, in an environment varying between supportive and inhibitory. The simulations demonstrate spread of antibiotic resistance (R) plasmids, both compatible and incompatible, by the bacterial gene transfer process of conjugation. This paper describes the behaviour of virtual plasmids, their modes of exchange within bacterial populations and the impact of antibiotics, together with the rules governing plasmid transfer. Three case studies are examined: transfer of an R plasmid within an antibiotic-susceptible population, transfer of two incompatible R plasmids and transfer of two compatible R plasmids. R plasmid transfer confers antibiotic resistance on recipients. For incompatible plasmids, one or other plasmid could be maintained in bacterial cells and only that portion of the population acquiring the appropriate plasmid-encoded resistance survives exposure to the antibiotics. By contrast, the compatible plasmids transfer and mix freely within the bacterial population that survives in its entirety in the presence of the antibiotics. These studies are intended to inform models for examining adaptive evolution in bacteria. They provide proof of principle in simple systems as a platform for predicting the behaviour of bacterial populations in more complex situations, for example in response to changing environments or in multi-species bacterial assemblages.