Back to Search
Start Over
A simple scoring system for outcome prediction of ischemic stroke.
- Source :
-
Acta neurologica Scandinavica [Acta Neurol Scand] 2011 Nov; Vol. 124 (5), pp. 334-42. Date of Electronic Publication: 2011 Jan 17. - Publication Year :
- 2011
-
Abstract
- Objectives: According to most existing models, a computer is usually needed for predicting stroke outcome. Our purpose was to construct a simple and reliable prognostic scale not requiring the use of a calculating machine.<br />Materials and Methods: The scale [the Bologna Outcome Algorithm for Stroke (BOAS)] was obtained in 221 patients with ischemic stroke not undergoing thrombolysis and was then validated in a test group of 100 different patients. Outcome was assessed at 9 months as the number of dependent or dead patients (modified Rankin scale - mRS > 2).<br />Results: By a preliminary systematic univariate analysis, 25 of 415 baseline variables were found to be associated with a mRS > 2 independently of stroke severity and age. Subsequent multivariable analyses led to a final model based on five dichotomous risk factors (RF): National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≥10, age ≥78, need of urinary catheter, oxygen administration, and persistence of upper limb paralysis at discharge from stroke unit. The patients with two or more RF (53%) had a mRS > 2 in 91% of cases and were dead in 42% of cases. With 0-1 RF, the two percentages were 24% and 2%, respectively (overall accuracy of prediction 83.9%, area under ROC curve [AUC] 0.891). In the test group, the accuracy was 79.0% and the AUC was 0.839.<br />Conclusions: The need of urinary catheter, oxygen administration, and persistence of upper limb paralysis, together with stroke severity and advanced age, allow a simple and accurate prediction of dependency or death after ischemic stroke.<br /> (© 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.)
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1600-0404
- Volume :
- 124
- Issue :
- 5
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Acta neurologica Scandinavica
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 21241255
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0404.2010.01479.x