[Water quality forewarning model in the framework of water pollution forewarning DSS].

In order to deal with the water pollution accident and take emergency measures effectively, water pollution forewarning decision support systems (DSS) is important to be established and water quality forewarning model is one of the hard points of DSS. Miyun Reservoir is the most important surface water sources of Beijing. Baihe River, which is the upstream river of Miyun Reservoir, is selected as the case study in this paper. The three-layer frame of the water pollution forewarning DSS is proposed with the core of mathematical model; then model development and parameterization are studied. Finally, a typical accident of NaCN pollution is taken for instance; the scenario of the accident is simulated and analyzed by DSS. The case study shows that the DSS could precisely analyze and forecast the pollution development trend, and simulate the different impact of emergency proposal. The result could support the primary decision of the emergency proposal to meet the functional requirement of the system.