Reducing the spread of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa: some demographic and economic implications.

Any reduction in the rate of spread of HIV infection has consequences for the incidence and demographic effects of AIDS. In this paper, output from a published mathematical model of the dynamics of HIV transmission through heterosexual contact is used to study the implications of reducing HIV transmission on demographic patterns and national health budgets in sub-Saharan Africa. The major conclusion is that both the timing and the effectiveness of reducing HIV transmission are non-linearly related to their potential demographic and economic effects. The analysis emphasizes the benefits to be gained from a concerted effort to reduce the spread of HIV infection as early as possible in the time course of the epidemic.