Are we running out of thoracic or cardiac surgeons? Demography of thoracic and cardiac surgeons in France in 2012.

Objectives: The aim of the study was to accurately evaluate the inflow and outflow of thoracic and cardiac surgeons in France.
Methods: The French Society of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery (SFCTCV) built a database of the surgeons involved in thoracic and/or cardiac surgery in France. It included all surgeons who perform cardiac or thoracic surgery regardless of the number of operations performed per year, whether or not they are members of the SFCTCV and all trainees once they have expressed an interest in thoracic and/or cardiac surgery.
Results: The database included 552 senior surgeons (professors, attending surgeons in public practice and attending surgeons in private practice) practicing cardiac and/or thoracic surgery. Of these, 206 practiced cardiac, 278 thoracic and 68 both. The 'inflow' includes 128 residents and 83 senior residents. Global analysis of age distribution showed a mean predictable outflow of 17.6 senior surgeons per year between 2013 and 2022. The 'inflow' of finishing senior residents for the next 5 years was 18 per year. The number of residents was 25 per year of residency. Cardiac surgeon 'outflow' was 7.7 per year and the inflow of finishing senior residents 10-11 per year. The difficult period will be 2015-19 with an excess of 5 finishing senior residents per year. Thoracic surgeon 'outflow' was 11.7 and inflow 10 per year. Gender distribution indicated an increasing feminization. The female proportion was 5, 23 and 31% among senior surgeons, senior residents and residents, respectively.
Conclusions: France will not run out of cardiothoracic surgeons. The inflow compensates for the outflow of surgeons liable to stop their activity in the next 10 years.