Back to Search
Start Over
[Prediction of epidemic tendency of schistosomiasis with time-series model in Hubei Province].
- Source :
-
Zhongguo xue xi chong bing fang zhi za zhi = Chinese journal of schistosomiasis control [Zhongguo Xue Xi Chong Bing Fang Zhi Za Zhi] 2014 Dec; Vol. 26 (6), pp. 613-7. - Publication Year :
- 2014
-
Abstract
- Objective: To study the endemic trend of schistosomiasis japonica in Hubei Province, so as to provide the theoretical basis for surveillance and forecasting of schistosomiasis.<br />Methods: The time-series auto regression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to fit the infection rate of residents of Hubei Province from 1987 to 2013, and to predict the short-term trend of infection rate.<br />Results: The actual values of infection rate of residents were all in the 95% confidence internals of value predicted by the ARIMA model. The prediction showed that the infection rate of residents of Hubei Province would continue to decrease slowly.<br />Conclusion: The time-series ARIMA model has good prediction accuracy, and could be used for the short-term forecasting of schistosomiasis.
Details
- Language :
- Chinese
- ISSN :
- 1005-6661
- Volume :
- 26
- Issue :
- 6
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Zhongguo xue xi chong bing fang zhi za zhi = Chinese journal of schistosomiasis control
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 25856884