Risk of progression to diabetes from prediabetes defined by HbA1c or fasting plasma glucose criteria in Koreans.

Aims: To examine the abilities of HbA1c and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) criteria predicting 5-year progression rate to diabetes in Korean adults with prediabetes.
Methods: Participants included 17,971 Koreans (aged 20-79years) who underwent routine medical check-ups at a mean interval of 5.2years (3.1-6.7years). Prediabetes was defined as FPG 5.6-6.9mmol/l or HbA1c 5.7-6.4% (39-46mmol/mol). Incident diabetes was defined as FPG⩾7.0mmol/l, HbA1c⩾6.5% (48mmol/mol), or initiation of antidiabetic medications.
Results: At baseline, the prevalence of prediabetes was 30.6% (n=5495) by FPG and 20.4% (n=3664) by HbA1c criteria. The 5-year progression rate to diabetes was significantly higher in prediabetes identified by HbA1c than by FPG tests (14.7% vs. 10.4%, P<0.001). Of individuals diagnosed with prediabetes by only one test, those by HbA1c alone had a higher risk of progression to diabetes than those diagnosed by FPG alone (6.0% vs. 3.9%, P<0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that area under the curve was greater for HbA1c (0.855, 95% CI 0.840-0.870) than for FPG (0.830, 0.813-0.846) (P=0.016). After adjustment for conventional risk factors, the odds ratio (OR) of developing diabetes was higher in participants with prediabetes identified by HbA1c (OR 9.91, 8.24-11.9) than by FPG (OR 7.29, 5.97-8.89) (P=0.026).
Conclusions: Although fewer individuals with prediabetes were identified by HbA1c than by FPG criteria, the ability to predict progression to diabetes was stronger for HbA1c than for FPG in Koreans.
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