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Projections of NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.
- Source :
-
The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2017 Dec 31; Vol. 607-608, pp. 78-86. Date of Electronic Publication: 2017 Jul 05. - Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH <subscript>3</subscript> ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH <subscript>3</subscript> emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH <subscript>3</subscript> emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH <subscript>3</subscript> emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH <subscript>3</subscript> emissions. The total NH <subscript>3</subscript> emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH <subscript>3</subscript> ·yr <superscript>-1</superscript> (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH <subscript>3</subscript> ·yr <superscript>-1</superscript> ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH <subscript>3</subscript> emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr <superscript>-1</superscript> increasing on average 4.4%·yr <superscript>-1</superscript> . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH <subscript>3</subscript> emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH <subscript>3</subscript> ·yr <superscript>-1</superscript> (11.5-16.3TgNH <subscript>3</subscript> ·yr <superscript>-1</superscript> ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH <subscript>3</subscript> emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH <subscript>3</subscript> emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels.<br /> (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1879-1026
- Volume :
- 607-608
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- The Science of the total environment
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 28688258
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.258