Can we predict the refractive outcome after triple Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty?

Purpose:: To analyze and correlate corneal parameters with refractive shift after Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty combined with cataract surgery (triple Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty).
Methods:: This single-center retrospective observational case series included 152 eyes of 152 consecutive patients undergoing triple Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty in the first eye for Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy. Patients were examined preoperatively, as well as at 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery. The main outcome measures were: refractive shift (predicted refractive outcome based on intraocular lens calculation compared to actual postoperative refractive outcome), central corneal thickness, corneal volume, anterior and posterior corneal curvature, and corneal densitometry. These parameters were analyzed and correlated with the refractive shift after surgery.
Results:: After 3 months from surgery, a mean refractive shift of +1.12 ± 1.10 D was observed and remained stable until the last follow-up at 12 months (+1.24 ± 1.07 D). Correlation analysis showed a weak but significant positive correlation between refractive shift and preoperative posterior curvature (rho = 0.314; p = 0.002) or preoperative posterior densitometry (rho = 0.227; p = 0.008). No correlation was found between refractive shift and preoperative central corneal thickness, corneal volume, anterior curvature, or anterior/mid-cornea densitometry.
Conclusion:: Changes of the posterior cornea may have an influence on the refractive shift. Patients with flatter posterior corneal curvature or higher posterior corneal density seem to exhibit a higher hyperopic shift. The weak correlations indicate a poor predictive value of any preoperative parameter used in our study.