Are per capita carbon emissions predictable across countries?

Background: China and other developing countries in Asia follow similar economic growth patterns described by the flying geese (FG) model, which explains the "catching-up" process of industrialization in latecomer economies. Japan, newly industrialized economies, and China have followed this path, with similar economic development trajectories. Based on the FG model, we postulated a "flying S" hypothesis stating that if a country is located within an FG region and its energy matrix is relatively constant, its per capita CO ₂ emission curve will mirror that of "leading geese" countries in the same FG group.
Method: Historical CO ₂ emissions data were obtained from literature review and national reports and were calculated using bottom-up methods. A sigmoid-shaped, non-linear mixed effect model was applied to examine ex post data with 1000 simulated predictions to construct 95% empirical bands from these fits. By multiplying by estimated population, we predicted total emissions of selected FG countries.
Results: Per capita CO ₂ emissions from the same FG group mirror each other, especially among second and third industrial sectors. We estimated an annual 18,252.24 million tons of CO ₂ emissions (MtCO ₂ ) (95% CI = 9458.88-23,972.88) in China and 8281.76 MtCO2 (95% CI = 2765.68-14,959.12) in India in 2030.
Conclusion: This study bridges the macroeconomic FG paradigm to study climate change and proposes a "flying S" hypothesis to predict greenhouse gas emissions in East Asia. By applying our theory to empirical data, we provide an alternative framework to predict CO ₂ emissions in 2030 and beyond.
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