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Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities.

Authors :
Lo YTE
Mitchell DM
Gasparrini A
Vicedo-Cabrera AM
Ebi KL
Frumhoff PC
Millar RJ
Roberts W
Sera F
Sparrow S
Uhe P
Williams G
Source :
Science advances [Sci Adv] 2019 Jun 05; Vol. 5 (6), pp. eaau4373. Date of Electronic Publication: 2019 Jun 05 (Print Publication: 2019).
Publication Year :
2019

Abstract

Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
2375-2548
Volume :
5
Issue :
6
Database :
MEDLINE
Journal :
Science advances
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
31183397
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373