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Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets.
- Source :
-
Nature [Nature] 2019 Jul; Vol. 571 (7765), pp. 335-342. Date of Electronic Publication: 2019 Jul 17. - Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- Research reported during the past decade has shown that global warming is roughly proportional to the total amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. This makes it possible to estimate the remaining carbon budget: the total amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide that can still be emitted into the atmosphere while holding the global average temperature increase to the limit set by the Paris Agreement. However, a wide range of estimates for the remaining carbon budget has been reported, reducing the effectiveness of the remaining carbon budget as a means of setting emission reduction targets that are consistent with the Paris Agreement. Here we present a framework that enables us to track estimates of the remaining carbon budget and to understand how these estimates can improve over time as scientific knowledge advances. We propose that application of this framework may help to reconcile differences between estimates of the remaining carbon budget and may provide a basis for reducing uncertainty in the range of future estimates.
- Subjects :
- Earth, Planet
Environmental Policy legislation & jurisprudence
Feedback
Global Warming legislation & jurisprudence
Human Activities legislation & jurisprudence
International Cooperation legislation & jurisprudence
Paris
Reproducibility of Results
Time Factors
Uncertainty
Atmosphere chemistry
Carbon Dioxide analysis
Global Warming prevention & control
Global Warming statistics & numerical data
Goals
Models, Theoretical
Temperature
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1476-4687
- Volume :
- 571
- Issue :
- 7765
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Nature
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 31316194
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z