Back to Search
Start Over
Validation of Risk Prediction Models for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in a Prospective Korean Community-Based Cohort.
- Source :
-
Diabetes & metabolism journal [Diabetes Metab J] 2020 Jun; Vol. 44 (3), pp. 458-469. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Jan 13. - Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- Background: To investigate the performance of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) in a large, prospective, community-based cohort in Korea and to compare it with that of the Framingham Global Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score (FRS-CVD) and the Korean Risk Prediction Model (KRPM).<br />Methods: In the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KOGES)-Ansan and Ansung study, we evaluated calibration and discrimination of the PCE for non-Hispanic whites (PCE-WH) and for African Americans (PCE-AA) and compared their predictive abilities with the FRS-CVD and the KRPM.<br />Results: The present study included 7,932 individuals (3,778 men and 4,154 women). The PCE-WH and PCE-AA moderately overestimated the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) for men (6% and 13%, respectively) but underestimated the risk for women (-49% and -25%, respectively). The FRS-CVD overestimated ASCVD risk for men (91%) but provided a good risk prediction for women (3%). The KRPM underestimated ASCVD risk for men (-31%) and women (-31%). All the risk prediction models showed good discrimination in both men (C-statistic 0.730 to 0.735) and women (C-statistic 0.726 to 0.732). Recalibration of the PCE using data from the KOGES-Ansan and Ansung study substantially improved the predictive accuracy in men.<br />Conclusion: In the KOGES-Ansan and Ansung study, the PCE overestimated ASCVD risk for men and underestimated the risk for women. The PCE-WH and the FRS-CVD provided an accurate prediction of ASCVD in men and women, respectively.<br />Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported.<br /> (Copyright © 2020 Korean Diabetes Association.)
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 2233-6087
- Volume :
- 44
- Issue :
- 3
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Diabetes & metabolism journal
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 31950769
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.4093/dmj.2019.0061