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A Method for Comparing the Impact on Carcinogenicity of Tobacco Products: A Case Study on Heated Tobacco Versus Cigarettes.
- Source :
-
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis [Risk Anal] 2020 Jul; Vol. 40 (7), pp. 1355-1366. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 May 01. - Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- Comparing the harmful health effects related to two different tobacco products by applying common risk assessment methods to each individual compound is problematic. We developed a method that circumvents some of these problems by focusing on the change in cumulative exposure (CCE) of the compounds emitted by the two products considered. The method consists of six steps. The first three steps encompass dose-response analysis of cancer data, resulting in relative potency factors with confidence intervals. The fourth step evaluates emission data, resulting in confidence intervals for the expected emission of each compound. The fifth step calculates the change in CCE, probabilistically, resulting in an uncertainty range for the CCE. The sixth step estimates the associated health impact by combining the CCE with relevant dose-response information. As an illustrative case study, we applied the method to eight carcinogens occurring both in the emissions of heated tobacco products (HTPs), a novel class of tobacco products, and tobacco smoke. The CCE was estimated to be 10- to 25-fold lower when using HTPs instead of cigarettes. Such a change indicates a substantially smaller reduction in expected life span, based on available dose-response information in smokers. However, this is a preliminary conclusion, as only eight carcinogens were considered so far. Furthermore, an unfavorable health impact related to HTPs remains as compared to complete abstinence. Our method results in useful information that may help policy makers in better understanding the potential health impact of new tobacco and related products. A similar approach can be used to compare the carcinogenicity of other mixtures.<br /> (© 2020 The Authors. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.)
- Subjects :
- Carcinogens administration & dosage
Carcinogens analysis
Dose-Response Relationship, Drug
Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems
Hot Temperature
Humans
Inhalation Exposure
Risk Assessment methods
Risk Assessment statistics & numerical data
Smoke adverse effects
Smoke analysis
Smoking adverse effects
Nicotiana chemistry
Tobacco Products analysis
Carcinogens toxicity
Nicotiana toxicity
Tobacco Products toxicity
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1539-6924
- Volume :
- 40
- Issue :
- 7
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 32356921
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13482